The United Nations has warned that a strengthening El Niño weather pattern is expected to return by mid-2026, threatening drought conditions across large swathes of Southern Africa and potentially reversing hard-won humanitarian gains in the region. Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center place the probability of El Niño emerging between June and August 2026 at 62 percent, citing warming sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
El Niño typically brings drier and hotter conditions to Southern Africa, reducing rainfall during the agricultural season and exacerbating water shortages. The previous El Niño event, which peaked in late 2019, contributed to devastating droughts in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Zambia, cutting cereal harvests and pushing millions into food insecurity.
South Africa’s agricultural sector is particularly exposed. The maize belt — the country’s food basket — relies heavily on timely rainfall. A repeat of the 2015-2016 drought, which forced South Africa to import more than five million tonnes of maize, would strain foreign exchange reserves and drive up staple food prices for millions of households.
Regional governments are beginning to prepare. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has activated its early warning systems, and several member states are reviewing contingency plans for drought response. Water management authorities in Zambia and Zimbabwe have begun assessing dam levels and irrigation infrastructure in anticipation of a drier second half of the year.
Climate scientists say the upcoming El Niño could be among the strongest in a decade. Long-range models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggest it may peak at “super El Niño” levels — a scenario that would amplify agricultural disruption across the southern half of the continent.
For subsistence farmers across Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi — nations still recovering from recent floods and crop disease — the warning comes at a deeply precarious moment. Aid agencies are urging donor governments to release pre-positioned emergency funding now, before drought conditions take hold, to avoid a repeat of the food crises that swept the region in the mid-2010s. The UN’s appeal is clear: preparation is cheaper than relief.